Research Report: Comparative Goaltending Efficacy (2021-2026)

Inclusion Criteria

Restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of 50 Games Played across the five-year observation window.

Primary Findings: The Era’s Elite

The following table represents the top 20 goaltenders ranked by their average standing across all pillars.

Rank	Player	GP	Composite Score
1	Linus Ullmark	223	7.2
2	Igor Shesterkin	278	8.2
3	Jake Oettinger	276	9.6
4	Pyotr Kochetkov	125	9.8
5	Frederik Andersen	159	10.6
6	Andrei Vasilevskiy	296	11.0
7	Connor Hellebuyck	310	11.8
8	Logan Thompson	203	12.4
9	Sergei Bobrovsky	268	13.0
10	Ilya Samsonov	155	13.2
11	Scott Wedgewood	159	13.8
12	Joel Hofer	115	14.0
13	Darcy Kuemper	247	14.6
14	Jack Campbell	90	14.7
15	Jeremy Swayman	235	15.0
16	Anthony Stolarz	134	15.6
17	Filip Gustavsson	210	17.6
18	Ilya Sorokin	286	18.4
19	Adin Hill	164	18.8
20	Alex Lyon	127	21.5

Detailed Logical Analysis

1. The Distinction of the “Big Three” (Ullmark, Shesterkin, Oettinger)

The data reveals a clear separation at the top of the hierarchy. Linus Ullmark leads due to a nearly unprecedented Win Rate and Victory Efficiency, though critics may point to the defensive systems in front of him. Conversely, Igor Shesterkin’s rank is bolstered by his Save Ratio (10.88), which is the highest in the dataset, suggesting he provides the most individual value regardless of team context.

2. Workload vs. Efficiency (The Hellebuyck/Saros Paradox)

Connor Hellebuyck (310 GP) and Juuse Saros (312 GP) faced the highest total shot volumes. While their Composite Scores (11.8 and 29.4 respectively) are slightly diluted by team-driven metrics like Loss Rate, their ability to maintain a top-quartile Saves per Minute over such a massive sample size confirms their status as the league's premier "Workhorses."

3. Efficiency Outliers

Pyotr Kochetkov (#4) and Ilya Sorokin (#18) present fascinating cases. Kochetkov possesses the second-highest Shutout Rate (0.092) and the lowest Shots Against per Minute (0.427), indicating he thrives in controlled, high-pressure environments. Sorokin, despite a lower Composite Score due to team losses, holds the #1 Shutout Rate in the league (0.093), proving that his peak performance is arguably the highest of any active goaltender.

Conclusions

The five-year period from 2021 to 2026 marks an era defined by efficiency over volume. While the previous decade valued "Games Played" as a primary metric for greatness, our research indicates that the modern elite—led by Ullmark and Shesterkin—are defined by their ability to maximize the value of every shot faced and every win earned.

Goalies like Jake Oettinger and Logan Thompson represent a new tier of consistency that bridges the gap between high-volume veterans and high-efficiency specialists.

Thesis: The Transition to Multi-Pillar Efficiency (2021-2026)

The Fallacy of the Monolithic Metric

The historical evaluation of NHL goaltending has long suffered from a reliance on monolithic metrics—primarily Save Percentage (Sv%) and Goals Against Average (GAA). Our analysis of the 2021-2026 era demonstrates that these figures, while useful as surface-level indicators, are insufficient for capturing the nuance of elite performance. The data suggests that goaltending excellence in the modern era is not a single attribute but a triad of Reliability (Win Rate), Peak Performance (Shutout Rate), and Structural Resiliency (Save Efficiency Ratio).

The Structural Impact of Team Systems

A central finding of this research is the quantifiable divergence between "System Goalies" and "Individual Value Goalies." - The System Dominance Model: Goaltenders like Linus Ullmark and Frederik Andersen represent the pinnacle of system integration. Their high Win Rates (0.632 and 0.616) and low Goals Against per Win (3.77 and 3.91) suggest a synergy where the goalie’s style perfectly complements the defensive structure, resulting in maximum victory efficiency. - The Individual Resiliency Model: Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin represent a different paradigm. Their Save Ratios (10.88 and 10.65) remain elite even when team metrics (like Loss Rate) fluctuate. This suggests that their performance is decoupled from the team’s defensive floor, providing a "bail-out" capacity that is statistically distinct from the system-driven success of their peers.

The Psychological and Physical Burden of Shot Frequency

Our investigation into Shots Against per Minute (SA/Min) vs. Saves per Games Played (Svs/GP) reveals a hidden tax on consistency. Goalies like John Gibson and Elvis Merzlikins face a relentless "shot-per-minute" volume that degrades Composite Scores over a five-year sample. Conversely, the "New Elite"—exemplified by Jake Oettinger and Pyotr Kochetkov—benefit from lower SA/Min (0.472 and 0.427), which allows for higher mental and physical recovery between interventions. This suggests that the next decade of goaltending will be dominated by those who can maintain peak "Shutout Efficiency" (SO/GS) within controlled, low-volume environments.

The New Archetype: The High-Efficiency Hybrid

The top 10 of our Master Ranking identifies a new archetype: the Goaltender who bridges the gap between the Workhorse (Hellebuyck/Saros) and the Specialist (Stolarz). This hybrid class—led by Jake Oettinger and Logan Thompson—maintains a top-quartile standing in both individual shot-stopping and team-dependent outcomes. They are the most valuable assets in the modern NHL because they provide a stable foundation (Loss Suppression) without sacrificing the high-ceiling peak (Shutout Rate) required for deep playoff runs.

Final Conclusion

The 2021-2026 era of NHL goaltending has officially moved beyond the era of the "unlimited workload." The data proves that efficiency is the new volume. The "Best Goaltender" is no longer the one who plays the most games, but the one who achieves the lowest Composite Score—demonstrating a mastery over the cost of winning (GA/W), the frequency of perfection (SO/GS), and the raw ratio of saves to failures (Svs/GA). In this new landscape, Linus Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin stand as the dual-standard for what defines greatness in the first half of the 2020s.

The complete table

66 qualifying goaltenders · every pillar value and rank

#	Player	GP	GS	W	L	OT	SA	Svs	GA	Sv%	GAA	SO	Win Rate	Rk	SO Rate	Rk	Svs/GA	Rk	Loss Rate	Rk	GA/Win	Rk	Composite
1	Linus Ullmark	223	218	141	52	21	6231	5701	532	0.915	2.46	12	0.632	1	0.055	30	10.72	3	0.239	1	3.77	1	7.2
2	Igor Shesterkin	278	277	161	91	25	8123	7440	684	0.916	2.51	20	0.579	8	0.072	11	10.88	1	0.329	15	4.25	6	8.2
3	Jake Oettinger	276	272	173	70	26	7566	6884	683	0.91	2.55	15	0.627	2	0.055	29	10.08	10	0.257	4	3.95	3	9.6
4	Pyotr Kochetkov	125	120	71	38	12	3080	2786	295	0.905	2.46	11	0.568	10	0.092	2	9.44	24	0.317	8	4.15	5	9.8
5	Frederik Andersen	159	157	98	49	10	4085	3702	383	0.906	2.45	9	0.616	3	0.057	23	9.67	18	0.312	7	3.91	2	10.6
6	Andrei Vasilevskiy	296	296	180	95	20	8419	7691	731	0.914	2.49	16	0.608	4	0.054	31	10.52	6	0.321	10	4.06	4	11.0
7	Connor Hellebuyck	310	309	173	106	30	9128	8349	779	0.915	2.54	21	0.558	11	0.068	17	10.72	2	0.343	20	4.50	9	11.8
8	Logan Thompson	203	195	118	59	23	5758	5249	509	0.912	2.57	10	0.581	7	0.051	35	10.31	7	0.303	6	4.31	7	12.4
9	Sergei Bobrovsky	268	265	159	86	13	7243	6542	701	0.903	2.71	19	0.593	5	0.072	12	9.33	29	0.325	11	4.41	8	13.0
10	Ilya Samsonov	155	148	89	38	22	4168	3751	417	0.9	2.82	12	0.574	9	0.081	3	9.00	40	0.257	3	4.69	11	13.2
11	Scott Wedgewood	159	143	83	42	22	4336	3951	385	0.911	2.58	8	0.522	17	0.056	28	10.26	9	0.294	5	4.64	10	13.8
12	Joel Hofer	115	106	59	35	10	3076	2795	283	0.909	2.67	8	0.513	19	0.075	7	9.88	15	0.330	16	4.80	13	14.0
13	Darcy Kuemper	247	243	122	77	36	6869	6242	629	0.909	2.66	19	0.494	27	0.078	5	9.92	13	0.317	9	5.16	19	14.6
14	Jack Campbell	90	86	53	22	10	2614	2356	258	0.901	3.04	6	0.589	6	0.070	15.5	9.13	35	0.256	2	4.87	15	14.7
15	Jeremy Swayman	235	227	125	77	26	6554	5953	602	0.908	2.66	16	0.532	14	0.070	14	9.89	14	0.339	19	4.82	14	15.0
16	Anthony Stolarz	134	117	64	39	11	3650	3335	316	0.914	2.63	9	0.478	33	0.077	6	10.55	5	0.333	17	4.94	17	15.6
17	Filip Gustavsson	210	203	106	73	24	6100	5550	551	0.91	2.69	15	0.505	21	0.074	9	10.07	11	0.360	25	5.20	22	17.6
18	Ilya Sorokin	286	281	141	107	35	8527	7798	732	0.915	2.63	26	0.493	31	0.093	1	10.65	4	0.381	35	5.19	21	18.4
19	Adin Hill	164	159	87	52	15	4228	3820	409	0.904	2.65	9	0.530	15	0.057	26	9.34	28	0.327	13	4.70	12	18.8
20	Alex Lyon	127	119	65	41	13	3562	3223	341	0.905	2.9	7	0.512	20	0.059	20.5	9.45	23	0.345	21	5.25	23	21.5
21	Tristan Jarry	225	215	111	77	27	6297	5696	602	0.905	2.87	16	0.493	29	0.074	8	9.46	22	0.358	24	5.42	28	22.2
22	Thatcher Demko	190	187	100	68	17	5547	5041	507	0.909	2.76	9	0.526	16	0.048	36	9.94	12	0.364	29	5.07	18	22.2
23	Jacob Markstrom	263	261	132	94	30	7002	6317	685	0.902	2.67	17	0.502	22	0.065	18	9.22	32	0.360	27	5.19	20	23.8
24	Stuart Skinner	223	217	120	71	23	6048	5457	592	0.902	2.76	9	0.538	13	0.041	48	9.22	33	0.327	14	4.93	16	24.8
25	Joseph Woll	117	113	63	43	9	3550	3218	333	0.906	2.94	4	0.538	12	0.035	52	9.66	19	0.381	34	5.29	25	28.4
26	Charlie Lindgren	146	136	72	49	16	3989	3596	395	0.901	2.85	8	0.493	30	0.059	20.5	9.10	37	0.360	28	5.49	30	29.1
27	Marc-Andre Fleury	168	159	83	63	15	4825	4361	464	0.904	2.91	9	0.494	26	0.057	26	9.40	26	0.396	38	5.59	31	29.4
28	Cam Talbot	220	200	109	74	23	6005	5428	579	0.904	2.82	9	0.495	24	0.045	42	9.37	27	0.370	31	5.31	26	30.0
29	Casey DeSmith	150	136	67	47	23	4191	3801	391	0.907	2.79	7	0.447	42	0.051	34	9.72	17	0.346	22	5.84	36	30.2
30	Alexandar Georgiev	207	199	108	70	17	5823	5236	589	0.899	3.01	9	0.522	18	0.045	39	8.89	44	0.352	23	5.45	29	30.6
31	Anton Forsberg	170	155	75	64	14	4759	4312	448	0.906	2.88	11	0.441	43	0.071	13	9.62	20	0.413	41	5.97	39	31.2
32	Semyon Varlamov	92	88	38	38	11	2766	2521	245	0.911	2.76	7	0.413	48	0.080	4	10.29	8	0.432	52	6.45	47.5	31.9
33	Juuse Saros	312	311	154	125	29	9343	8479	865	0.908	2.86	13	0.494	28	0.042	47	9.80	16	0.402	40	5.62	32	32.6
34	Dan Vladar	152	141	76	46	22	3942	3543	401	0.899	2.79	4	0.500	23	0.028	56.5	8.84	49	0.326	12	5.28	24	32.9
35	Ville Husso	148	142	72	48	20	4265	3839	426	0.9	3.06	6	0.486	32	0.042	46	9.01	38	0.338	18	5.92	38	34.4
36	Vitek Vanecek	173	159	80	59	20	4542	4082	460	0.899	2.87	9	0.462	36	0.057	26	8.87	47	0.371	32	5.75	34	35.0
37	Jonathan Quick	163	152	74	58	21	4463	4008	455	0.898	2.95	11	0.454	39	0.072	10	8.81	53	0.382	36	6.15	42	36.0
38	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	186	181	92	71	18	5221	4699	524	0.9	2.94	8	0.495	25	0.044	45	8.97	41	0.392	37	5.70	33	36.2
39	Mackenzie Blackwood	186	174	80	72	18	5159	4654	506	0.902	2.94	11	0.430	46	0.063	19	9.20	34	0.414	42	6.33	45	37.2
40	Spencer Knight	146	137	64	58	20	4097	3700	398	0.903	2.84	8	0.438	45	0.058	22	9.30	31	0.423	47	6.22	43	37.6
41	David Rittich	126	111	58	41	13	3049	2738	312	0.898	2.74	5	0.460	37	0.045	41	8.78	54	0.369	30	5.38	27	37.8
42	Dustin Wolf	128	124	60	52	12	3598	3250	349	0.903	2.85	5	0.469	35	0.040	49	9.31	30	0.419	46	5.82	35	39.0
43	Connor Ingram	134	129	55	54	18	3833	3454	379	0.901	3.01	9	0.410	50	0.070	15.5	9.11	36	0.419	45	6.89	49	39.1
44	Joey Daccord	164	155	68	66	23	4550	4116	437	0.905	2.8	7	0.415	47	0.045	40	9.42	25	0.426	50	6.43	46	41.6
45	Martin Jones	105	94	50	39	7	2860	2561	301	0.895	3.12	5	0.476	34	0.053	32	8.51	61	0.415	43	6.02	40	42.0
46	Samuel Ersson	143	133	65	50	17	3437	3039	398	0.884	3.01	7	0.455	38	0.053	33	7.64	66	0.376	33	6.12	41	42.2
47	Carter Hart	144	141	58	59	23	4255	3849	406	0.905	2.96	4	0.403	54	0.028	56.5	9.48	21	0.418	44	7.00	50	45.1
48	James Reimer	154	141	59	60	24	4463	4016	448	0.9	3.07	8	0.383	58	0.057	24	8.96	42	0.426	49	7.59	57	46.0
49	Akira Schmid	82	65	32	28	10	1860	1671	189	0.898	2.66	3	0.390	57	0.046	37	8.84	48	0.431	51	5.91	37	46.0
50	Eric Comrie	93	89	42	42	4	2599	2336	263	0.899	3.02	4	0.452	41	0.045	43	8.88	45	0.472	58	6.26	44	46.2
51	Jordan Binnington	252	245	114	104	27	7214	6479	735	0.898	3.04	11	0.452	40	0.045	44	8.81	52	0.424	48	6.45	47.5	46.3
52	Jonas Johansson	84	75	37	27	11	2313	2051	262	0.887	3.39	3	0.440	44	0.040	50	7.83	65	0.360	26	7.08	51	47.2
53	Alex Nedeljkovic	190	167	75	67	27	5404	4854	550	0.898	3.13	6	0.395	55	0.036	51	8.83	50	0.401	39	7.33	54	49.8
54	Karel Vejmelka	262	249	108	117	22	7563	6801	766	0.899	3.1	8	0.412	49	0.032	54	8.88	46	0.470	57	7.09	52	51.6
55	Jake Allen	179	174	66	95	14	5395	4855	543	0.9	3.16	8	0.369	61	0.046	38	8.94	43	0.546	63	8.23	61	53.2
56	Joonas Korpisalo	174	155	71	70	17	4906	4393	514	0.895	3.2	5	0.408	52	0.032	53	8.55	59	0.452	55	7.24	53	54.4
57	Samuel Montembeault	206	192	81	84	29	6089	5461	629	0.897	3.24	5	0.393	56	0.026	58	8.68	56	0.438	53	7.77	58	56.2
58	Lukas Dostal	177	162	72	78	17	5235	4702	533	0.898	3.23	2	0.407	53	0.012	64	8.82	51	0.481	59	7.40	55	56.4
59	John Gibson	241	237	85	117	27	7387	6649	739	0.9	3.27	6	0.353	62	0.025	59	9.00	39	0.494	60	8.69	62	56.4
60	Elvis Merzlikins	213	204	87	90	25	6444	5763	681	0.894	3.41	5	0.408	51	0.025	60	8.46	62	0.441	54	7.83	59	57.2
61	Kevin Lankinen	173	156	64	71	22	4796	4293	503	0.895	3.12	5	0.370	60	0.032	55	8.53	60	0.455	56	7.86	60	58.2
62	Philipp Grubauer	188	178	70	90	16	4897	4376	521	0.894	3.0	4	0.372	59	0.022	61	8.40	63	0.506	61	7.44	56	60.0
63	Daniil Tarasov	98	92	32	49	9	2904	2605	299	0.897	3.3	1	0.327	64	0.011	65	8.71	55	0.533	62	9.34	64	62.0
64	Petr Mrazek	163	155	55	85	9	4805	4305	501	0.896	3.36	2	0.337	63	0.013	63	8.59	58	0.548	64	9.11	63	62.2
65	Kaapo Kahkonen	111	104	30	59	14	3364	3016	348	0.897	3.47	2	0.270	65	0.019	62	8.67	57	0.567	65	11.60	65	62.8
66	Arvid Soderblom	112	101	25	65	14	3351	2973	379	0.887	3.61	1	0.223	66	0.010	66	7.84	64	0.644	66	15.16	66	65.6

Pillars: Win Rate (W/GP) · Shutout Rate (SO/GS) · Save Efficiency Ratio (Svs/GA) · Loss Suppression (L/GS) · Victory Efficiency (GA/W). Composite = mean of the five pillar ranks; lower is better. Full definitions: methodology.