The money and the timeline
Territorial fees, expansion fees, the timeline from 2028 to 2040, and what could go wrong.
Territorial fees and owner politics
Single owners don't hold absolute veto power over expansion. Relocation and new franchises require Board of Governors approval, historically by supermajority, and owners who protest usually get paid rather than obeyed. The Islanders paid the Rangers a territorial fee in 1972, and Disney paid the Kings when Anaheim entered. A Baltimore team would indemnify Washington, Quebec would indemnify Montreal, and Saskatchewan would indemnify Edmonton, Calgary, and Winnipeg for prairie broadcast overlap.
National media revenue also splits among every owner. A franchise in Houston or Atlanta that helps drive the next U.S. rights deal benefits the owner collecting the indemnification and everyone else at the table. Saskatchewan raises the value of the Canadian rights the same way for the northern half of the league.
Money
Timing-wise and given the money involved in expansion fees, Seattle paid $650M and the next round would likely top that, it's only a matter of time before the league wants to cash in again.
Commissioner Bettman has publicly framed future expansion fees at roughly $2 billion per team, plus arena equity commitments that are often estimated in the $500–600 million range. Eight teams is $16 billion in expansion fees before financing, distributed among the existing owners and available to fund media infrastructure, a league direct-to-consumer platform, and territorial buyouts. Franchise values already average above $2 billion, with Toronto above $4 billion.
Not every market pays the same way. Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix bring corporate premium seating and national advertiser appeal. Quebec and Saskatchewan bring gate, merchandise, and Canadian media.
Timeline to 2040
2028 to 2030
The league renegotiates its U.S. rights for the period after 2027–28, splitting the packages: national A and B windows, streaming-first partners, and league retention of direct-to-consumer rights.
2030 to 2033
Four teams are added, bringing the league to 36. Houston and Quebec City go first. The other two slots depend on ownership and building readiness among Atlanta, Phoenix, Baltimore, and Cleveland.
2034 to 2037
The league reaches 40 with Saskatchewan, New Orleans, and the remaining openings. Realignment locks at twenty teams per conference with the four ten-team divisions in place.
2038 to 2040
The league renegotiates its U.S. and Canadian media at full forty-team scale. Rogers' current Canadian deal runs through the mid-2030s, so a North American rights reset can line up with forty teams and a league streaming platform. The Apple and MLS deal, with global rights consolidated on one streaming platform, is the closest precedent.
What could go wrong
Eight new teams need roughly 180 NHL roster spots. The league's position is that global development has absorbed prior expansions. Fourth-line quality and goaltending depth are where dilution shows first, so AHL affiliate expansion and the European pipeline need to grow alongside franchise growth, not after it.
Atlanta and Phoenix are ownership and building problems, not market-size problems. The plan fails if the league repeats short-horizon ownership in places that require patience. The later markets need committed owners and finished buildings.
Eighty-two games with ten-team divisions breaks down to roughly twenty-six division games, twenty-four against the other division in your conference, and thirty-two inter-conference games. The split is adjustable. The playoff format is the top four per division, re-seeded one through eight within the conference, sixteen teams in total.