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Goaltending Efficacy

Playoffs · 2021-22

By Jesse Ambrock

Research Report: Comparative Goaltending Efficacy (2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs)

Inclusion Criteria

Restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of 5 Games Played during the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Primary Findings: The Postseason’s Elite

The following table represents all qualifying goaltenders for the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs, ranked by their average standing across all five pillars.

RankPlayerTeamGPComposite Score
1Pavel FrancouzCOL73.0
2Jordan BinningtonSTL64.2
3Antti RaantaCAR136.0
4Andrei VasilevskiyTBL236.0
5Darcy KuemperCOL166.2
6Mike SmithEDM166.4
7Jake OettingerDAL76.5
8Igor ShesterkinNYR208.0
9Jeremy SwaymanBOS58.1
10Jonathan QuickLAK710.2
11Jack CampbellTOR710.7
12Jacob MarkstromCGY1211.7
13Louis DominguePIT612.0
14Sergei BobrovskyFLA1012.5
15Ville HussoSTL713.6
16Marc-Andre FleuryMIN513.7
17Ilya SamsonovWSH514.2

Detailed Logical Analysis

1. The Cup-Winning Tandem

Colorado, the Stanley Cup champion, produces two of the postseason’s top five Composite finishes — Pavel Francouz at #1 (3.0) and Darcy Kuemper at #5 (6.2). Francouz’s profile is built on a perfect 6-0 record across 7 games (Win Rate #1, Loss Suppression #1) plus a top-tier Shutout Rate (#1). Kuemper’s profile is more balanced (#3 WinRate, #5 Svs/GA, #3 LossRate). The two profiles reflect the season-long Colorado tandem signal at scale: when both goaltenders are deployed during a championship run, the team-system component of the Composite produces parallel elite results.

2. Vasilevskiy’s Workload Achievement

Andrei Vasilevskiy carries the highest postseason workload — 23 GP — and finishes #4 with a Composite of 6.0, statistically tied with Raanta. His profile (#4 WinRate, #5 Svs/GA, #6 LossRate, #5 GA/W) holds up across nearly four full series. In a small-sample playoff field where 5–7 game samples can produce extreme rankings (Francouz, Binnington), Vasilevskiy’s Composite represents the era’s first clear case of high-volume, deep-run efficiency.

3. The Sample-Size Reality

Of the seventeen qualifying goaltenders, eight played fewer than 10 games. Francouz (#1, 7 GP) and Binnington (#2, 6 GP) post the postseason’s lowest Composites on samples too small to draw multi-series conclusions from. The methodology applies the same model to playoff data as regular-season data, but the playoff sample sizes change the reliability calculus — single rounds produce extreme rankings, multi-round runs produce more durable ones. The 5-GP inclusion threshold preserves the data; interpretation requires the GP column.


Conclusions

The 2021-22 postseason produces three structural findings the Composite captures: a Cup-winning dual-goaltender system (Colorado), a workload-overcoming run by the era’s premier playoff workhorse (Vasilevskiy), and a structural reminder that playoff samples behave differently from regular-season ones. The methodology’s value in the postseason is not predictive of outcome but descriptive of efficiency once the games have been played.


Thesis: The Playoff Composite as Descriptive, Not Predictive

The Cup-Tandem Confirmation

Colorado’s #1 and #5 placements during a Cup-winning playoff run mirror the same team-tandem signal the regular-season Composite identified. The postseason data does not contradict the team-system finding from the year’s regular-season analysis — it reinforces it. The playoff Composite functions as a checksum on the regular-season conclusions.

The Volume-Validation Apex

Vasilevskiy’s 23-GP, top-five Composite is the playoff equivalent of the workload-tax counterexample. Where the regular season tends to penalize 60+ GP volume goaltenders (the workload tax), the playoff Composite rewards goaltenders who maintain efficiency across a full run. The volume signal inverts in the postseason because deep playoff GP is itself a marker of effectiveness.

The Sample-Size Caveat

The playoff sample size is the methodology’s natural limit. Five-game samples produce extreme Composites (Francouz #1, Binnington #2) that the model cannot distinguish from sustained excellence. The 5-GP threshold preserves the data but the interpretation must remain literal: the model reports what happened in the games played, not what the goaltender’s true level was.

Final Conclusion

The 2021-22 postseason produces a Composite that confirms a Cup tandem (Colorado), surfaces a volume-validation outlier (Vasilevskiy), and exposes the playoff sample-size limit. Read alongside the regular-season report, the postseason analysis is the descriptive complement — what the goaltenders produced once the games actually mattered.