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Goaltending Efficacy

Playoffs · 2022-23

By Jesse Ambrock

Research Report: Comparative Goaltending Efficacy (2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs)

Inclusion Criteria

Restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of 5 Games Played during the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Primary Findings: The Postseason’s Elite

The following table represents all qualifying goaltenders for the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs, ranked by their average standing across all five pillars.

RankPlayerTeamGPComposite Score
1Adin HillVGK161.4
2Sergei BobrovskyFLA193.8
3Frederik AndersenCAR94.9
4Akira SchmidNJD95.6
5Laurent BrossoitVGK87.0
6Jake OettingerDAL197.2
7Igor ShesterkinNYR78.8
8Antti RaantaCAR68.8
9Philipp GrubauerSEA149.4
10Ilya SamsonovTOR99.9
11Linus UllmarkBOS610.6
12Alexandar GeorgievCOL710.9
13Filip GustavssonMIN511.3
14Ilya SorokinNYI612.6
15Stuart SkinnerEDM1213.0
16Joonas KorpisaloLAK615.0
17Andrei VasilevskiyTBL615.8
18Connor HellebuyckWPG516.6
19Vitek VanecekNJD717.4

Detailed Logical Analysis

1. Adin Hill’s Cup-Winning Profile

Adin Hill’s Composite Score of 1.4 is the most dominant single-postseason finish in any of our datasets. He ranks #1 in Win Rate, #2 in Shutout Rate, #1 in Save Efficiency Ratio, #2 in Loss Suppression, and #1 in Victory Efficiency — four pillars at #1 or #2 across 16 GP during a Stanley Cup victory. His pillar profile is the postseason equivalent of the regular-season Wedgewood/Andersen outliers: cross-pillar dominance produced during the games that mattered most.

2. The Vegas Tandem at #1 and #5

Vegas, the Stanley Cup champion, produces two of the postseason’s top five Composite finishes — Hill at #1 (1.4) and Laurent Brossoit at #5 (7.0). Both finished above #5 across at least three of the five pillars. The dual-tandem pattern that the regular-season Composite has surfaced repeatedly (Boston, Carolina, Colorado) appears in the postseason cut as well — a championship run, in this case, was supported by parallel efficiency from both depth charts.

3. The Bobrovsky Workload Run

Sergei Bobrovsky carries the highest postseason workload — 19 GP through Florida’s run to the Stanley Cup Final — and finishes #2 with a Composite of 3.8. His profile (#2 WinRate, #3 SO Rate, #7 Svs/GA, #3.5 LossRate, #3.5 GA/W) holds elite-tier consistency across the Cinderella run. The result begins what becomes a multi-year Bobrovsky playoff thesis: he is the era’s most reliable high-volume postseason goaltender, regardless of his regular-season Composite tier.


Conclusions

The 2022-23 postseason produces three structural findings: a near-perfect Cup-winning Composite (Hill at 1.4), a championship dual-tandem (Vegas), and the first installment of the Bobrovsky playoff workload thesis. The methodology produces a #1 finish that aligns with the actual Stanley Cup result while also exposing the depth-chart contribution that the trophy itself does not measure.


Thesis: The Postseason’s First Outlier

The Cup-Champion Floor

Hill’s 1.4 Composite is the postseason’s mathematical analogue to Andersen’s 1.0 in the 2023-24 regular season — a goaltender who finishes near the top of every pillar simultaneously during a championship run. The methodology produces a result that matches the season’s actual outcome (the Cup) while also identifying him by a measure independent of any single statistic.

The Vegas System Effect

Vegas’s #1 and #5 placements parallel the team-tandem patterns documented in the regular season. The system signal — that championship-quality teams produce parallel elite Composites from both goaltenders — appears in the postseason data with the same structure as the regular season.

The Bobrovsky Inversion

Bobrovsky’s #2 Composite on 19 postseason GP is the playoff data’s clearest workload-inversion case. In the regular season, his 2022-23 Composite ranked outside the top 30. In the playoffs, he produces a top-2 finish. The Composite captures what the postseason rewards differently from the regular season: durable cross-pillar performance under the highest single-elimination pressure.

Final Conclusion

The 2022-23 postseason produces a near-perfect Composite for the Cup winner (Hill), confirms the team-tandem signal at the championship level (Vegas), and begins what becomes the multi-year Bobrovsky playoff thesis. Read alongside the regular-season analyses, the postseason cut shows the methodology aligning with the actual Cup result while surfacing the depth-chart contribution.