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Goaltending Efficacy

Regular Season · 2023-24

By Jesse Ambrock

Research Report: Comparative Goaltending Efficacy (2023-24 Season)

Inclusion Criteria

Restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of 15 Games Played during the 2023-24 season.

Primary Findings: The Season’s Elite

The following table represents the top 20 goaltenders for the 2023-24 season, ranked by their average standing across all five pillars.

RankPlayerTeamGPComposite Score
1Frederik AndersenCAR161.0
2Laurent BrossoitWPG233.1
3Thatcher DemkoVAN517.3
4David RittichLAK248.5
5Sergei BobrovskyFLA589.6
6Anthony StolarzFLA279.7
7Jonathan QuickNYR2710.4
8Connor HellebuyckWPG6011.6
9Jeremy SwaymanBOS4412.9
10Igor ShesterkinNYR5513.6
11Pyotr KochetkovCAR4215.2
12Semyon VarlamovNYI2816.0
13Linus UllmarkBOS4016.4
14Jake OettingerDAL5417.7
15Charlie LindgrenWSH5019.4
16Stuart SkinnerEDM5922.2
17Adin HillVGK3522.2
18Calvin PickardEDM2324.2
19Cam TalbotLAK5424.7
20Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF5425.5

Detailed Logical Analysis

1. The Andersen Perfect-Score Anomaly

Frederik Andersen’s Composite Score of 1.0 is the lowest possible value the methodology can produce — he ranks #1 in all five pillars. No other goaltender in any dataset we have produced has achieved a perfect-pillar profile. The result must be qualified: he played only 16 GP, the smallest qualifying sample of any top-five finisher across the era. The Composite faithfully captures what the data shows — Andersen was statistically perfect across every measured dimension during a partial season — while leaving the volume question explicit through his GP column.

2. Three Teams with Dual Top-10 Goaltenders

The 2023-24 season produces a structural signal not seen in prior single-season cuts: three franchises place both of their primary goaltenders inside the top 10. Carolina holds #1 (Andersen) and #11 (Kochetkov, just outside), with Florida placing Bobrovsky (#5) and Stolarz (#6), Winnipeg placing Brossoit (#2) and Hellebuyck (#8), and the New York Rangers placing Quick (#7) and Shesterkin (#10). The pattern foreshadows the more pronounced dual-tandem clusters that emerge in the 2025-26 season.

3. The Hellebuyck Vezina Profile

Connor Hellebuyck wins the Vezina Trophy this season but finishes the Composite at #8 (11.6). His pillar profile is consistent rather than dominant — #8 in WinRate, #16 in SO Rate, #5 in Svs/GA, #21 in LossRate, #8 in GA/W. The methodology recognizes him as a top-tier goaltender but ranks him below seven others whose lower-volume seasons produced more dominant cross-pillar averages. The result is the year’s clearest illustration of the volume-versus-efficiency trade-off the Composite is designed to expose.


Conclusions

The 2023-24 season produces both the methodology’s most extreme single goaltender finding (Andersen’s perfect Composite) and the year’s most consistent system-level signal (three dual-tandem teams). The Hellebuyck case continues the Vezina-Composite divergence pattern observed in 2022-23 with Ullmark — high-volume goaltenders whose reputational value exceeds their multi-pillar Composite ranking.


Thesis: The Limit of the Composite

The Perfect-Score Outlier

Andersen’s 1.0 Composite is the methodology’s mathematical floor. He cannot be ranked any higher by this model. The result raises a real question about sample-size handling — should a 16-GP sample be eligible for the same ranking as a 60-GP sample? — but the methodology is intentionally agnostic on volume above its 15-GP threshold. Andersen’s #1 finish reflects what the data shows; his GP column tells the rest of the story.

The Dual-Tandem Foreshadowing

Four teams in 2023-24 place two goaltenders in or near the top 10. The pattern is more dispersed than the explicit dual-top-10 clusters of 2025-26 (Colorado, Buffalo, Minnesota), but it shows the team-system signal building across the era. The system-quality variable that the Composite captures appears to be a cumulative phenomenon, not a one-season event.

The Vezina-Composite Repeat

For the second consecutive season, the Vezina winner does not lead the Composite. Hellebuyck (Vezina) ranks #8; Ullmark (2022-23 Vezina) ranked #4. The methodology does not contradict the awards — both are top-10 goaltenders by the Composite’s own measure — but it consistently identifies different #1s. The discriminating power of the multi-pillar model is most visible in years when reputation and balanced-pillar measurement diverge.

Final Conclusion

The 2023-24 season produces the methodology’s clearest mathematical floor (Andersen’s 1.0 Composite) and confirms the building system-level signals that culminate in 2025-26. Read alongside the prior seasons, the season demonstrates that the Composite is sensitive to extremes the traditional metrics blur over.