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Goaltending Efficacy

Regular Season · 2024-25

By Jesse Ambrock

Research Report: Comparative Goaltending Efficacy (2024-25 Season)

Inclusion Criteria

Restricted to goaltenders with a minimum of 15 Games Played during the 2024-25 season.

Primary Findings: The Season’s Elite

The following table represents the top 20 goaltenders for the 2024-25 season, ranked by their average standing across all five pillars.

RankPlayerTeamGPComposite Score
1Connor HellebuyckWPG631.8
2Anthony StolarzTOR344.0
3Darcy KuemperLAK504.3
4Andrei VasilevskiyTBL638.4
5Adin HillVGK5010.2
6Logan ThompsonWSH4310.3
7Scott WedgewoodNSH,COL2411.0
8Linus UllmarkOTT4413.2
9Filip GustavssonMIN5814.8
10Casey DeSmithDAL2714.9
11Sergei BobrovskyFLA5415.3
12Dustin WolfCGY5316.8
13Jake OettingerDAL5817.5
14Jacob MarkstromNJD4920.1
15Joseph WollTOR4220.2
16Mackenzie BlackwoodSJS,COL5621.4
17Kevin LankinenVAN5121.9
18Joel HoferSTL3122.8
19Jakub DobesMTL1624.0
20Ilya SamsonovVGK2924.4

Detailed Logical Analysis

1. Hellebuyck’s Composite Vindication

Connor Hellebuyck’s Composite Score of 1.8 is the second-most dominant single-season finish in any of our datasets, behind only Andersen’s 16-GP perfect-1.0 in 2023-24. The result is significant because Hellebuyck achieved his finish on 63 GP — the second-highest workload of the season — directly contradicting the workload-tax pattern visible in every prior year of the dataset. He ranks #1 in Win Rate, #1 in Victory Efficiency, #2 in Save Efficiency Ratio, #2 in Loss Suppression, and #3 in Shutout Rate. The Composite produced him as the season’s #1 in alignment with his Vezina Trophy win — closing the Vezina-Composite gap that defined 2022-23 and 2023-24.

2. The Wedgewood Foreshadowing

Scott Wedgewood finishes #7 (11.0) on a 24-GP sample split between Nashville and Colorado, his profile a precursor to the 2025-26 anomaly. His pillar ranks (#12, #13, #16, #7, #7) show competent cross-pillar performance without dominance, but his post-trade emergence in Colorado seeds the trajectory that produces the historic 2.0 Composite the following season. The Composite identifies the upward signal a year early.

3. The Workhorse Three

For the first time in any single-season cut, three of the top five Composite finishers carried 50+ GP workloads — Hellebuyck (63 GP, #1), Kuemper (50 GP, #3), Vasilevskiy (63 GP, #4). The pattern represents a partial reversal of the workload-tax effect documented in prior seasons. Where 2021-22 produced only one top-10 finisher with 60+ GP (Markstrom #2), 2024-25 produces three top-five finishers above the 50-GP threshold. The volume-efficiency trade-off compresses.


Conclusions

The 2024-25 season produces the era’s first clean Vezina-Composite alignment in two years, the best high-workload Composite finish on record (Hellebuyck), and the precursor signal for the Wedgewood anomaly that defines 2025-26. The methodology produces a result consistent with the season’s most prominent reputational outcome while also exposing the upward signal that becomes the next season’s outlier.


Thesis: The Volume-Efficiency Reconciliation

The Workhorse Wins

Hellebuyck’s #1 Composite on 63 GP closes a chapter the dataset has been writing since 2021-22. Until this season, the goaltenders carrying the heaviest workloads were systematically penalized by the multi-pillar model. The 2024-25 result — three of the top five at 50+ GP — represents the cleanest case yet for the proposition that elite individual skill can override the workload tax when the team-system support is sufficient.

The Pre-Outlier Signal

Wedgewood’s #7 finish on a 24-GP split-team sample is the methodology’s most interesting upward signal. He posted no #1 pillar rank, no glaring statistical peak — just a clean cross-pillar profile in the top 15 of every category. A year later, the same goaltender on a single team produces a 2.0 Composite. The methodology surfaces the trajectory before it becomes the headline.

The Vezina-Composite Reconciliation

After two consecutive seasons of divergence (Ullmark 2022-23 ranked #4, Hellebuyck 2023-24 ranked #8), the 2024-25 Composite produces the Vezina winner at #1. The result is not a methodological course correction — the Composite continues to do exactly what it did in prior years — but a confirmation that when a single goaltender achieves cross-pillar dominance, the multi-pillar model and the awards process converge.

Final Conclusion

The 2024-25 season is the bridge year. It validates the methodology against the league’s award process, sets up the 2025-26 outlier (Wedgewood) before it occurs, and reframes the workload-tax thesis as conditional rather than absolute. Read alongside the multi-year baseline, the season is the cleanest case of the Composite producing what reputation, awards, and individual statistical dominance all agree on.